Do I purchase a house BEFORE or AFTER an economic collapse?
Many important people at the top of the financial food chain in America who are well in-the-know claim that a total collapse of the American economy and the dollar is imminent, that it has already started, that it is right around the corner, that it will make the crash of 2008 appear like a "Sunday picnic," that gasoline will go to $10.00 a gallon, and that it will rival the collapse of 1930.
For the sake of this question, let's say all these financial gurus are correct, and the crash actually happens within the next few months.
Do I dare sell the house I'm in and invest the measly $35,000.00 I have in a retirement account in another house in another state as a down payment---so I can afford to finance the new house---BEFORE the crash happens?
I plan to live in the new house and have no plans to sell it for a long time, say ten years. In fact, since I'm 66, it's probably the last house I'll ever buy. I'm thinkin' that as long as I don't try to sell the new house after the crash that my $35,000.00 down payment is not a bad idea if I really want to move, and I do.
Any words of wisdom on this issue from any of you kind folks who know about this kind of thing will be greatly appreciated.
Thanks so much.
Fri Nov 21, 2014 2:40 am
Wino Senior Member
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Your question is "Should I try to time the market."
A Google search with that question as the inquiry will give you your answer. At 66, conventional wisdom says to diversify your retirement into bonds at 2/3 and stocks at 1/3, but real estate should also be a part of your retirement.
In any case, the answer is "buy the house you need when you need it."
Nota bene: I do not believe in the conventional wisdom above. I think you should stay in equities (stocks) until the bitter end. If you are still buying retirement shares (still putting money in to your account), then I see absolutely no reason to stop investing in stocks. If you are now withdrawing, then I might do 25% to 30% in bonds.
Fri Nov 21, 2014 6:55 am
blixet Preferred Member
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An inflationary depression that is around the corner. Hmm... sounds like crazy talk to me. Maybe lay off the financial pornography for a while?
Information is more valuable sold than used – Fischer Black
Fri Nov 21, 2014 2:37 pm
Publius Preferred Member
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I've been hearing this same nonsense from a family member for a while (same one with the dinar "investments"). The fact of the matter is that noone can predict what is going to happen in the markets in the future. There is some possibility of your dire predictions coming true, but he VAST majority of people (both in the know and out of it) would disagree with the premise. If you truly believe that the economy is going to collapse, then what you invest in is irrelevant. If I had knowledge of a collapse of that magnitude, I would be divesting and stocking up on food and ammunition.
Fri Nov 21, 2014 3:46 pm
Wrecks-Cars New Poster
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Thanks so much for everyone's input on this; I truly appreciate it.
My question is not "should I try to time the market; my question was "should I buy a house before an economic collapse or sit tight and ride one out if it happens.
As for "crazy talk," the people predicting this are not crazy; they are many of the most powerful, influential, and well-known financial minds in the world, and, many of them have quietly been divesting for quite a while now.
As for "MY" dire predictions, I have none. Part of the opening sentence of my post bears that out. I simply stated what all these "crazy" people are saying:
"Many important people at the top of the financial food chain in America who are well in-the-know claim that a total collapse of the American economy and the dollar is imminent..."
As for the "vast majority" disagreeing, I've generally found that it's the vast majority that's usually wrong and lose their shirt when an economic collapse happens. I think history documents this.
I think Wino is on it:
"In any case, the answer is "buy the house you need when you need it." Thanks so much, Wino.
A financial adviser suggested as much. "As long as you plan to just live in the house and don't plan to sell it anytime soon after purchasing it, buy it before the bottom falls out while interest rates are low, invest the money in the down payment, then resign yourself to stay in the house until the economy recovers."
Thanks again for everyone's most gracious time and input. : [/b]
Fri Nov 21, 2014 10:43 pm
Wino Senior Member
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quote:Originally posted by Wrecks-Cars my question was "should I buy a house before an economic collapse or sit tight and ride one out if it happens.
So, asking "should I do something before or after something else happens?" is not a question about timing? It most definitely is. You need to admit it to yourself if you want to have any chance of retiring with money in the bank (so to speak). If you attempt to time the market, you will most likely go broke or have quite a bit less money than you would have had without the attempt at market timing.
Sat Nov 22, 2014 5:27 am
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Location: Bangkok and Singapore
Honestly all depend of what you have in mind with this house.
If you buy this house just to live in and enjoy it as long as you can it is definitely the right moment coz interest rate are low ( please choose a fix interest rate for your mortgage)
If you buy it as an investment it is way better to wait the market collapse and buy you house when everybode will sell them. And when you the amount of government debt in the US, Europe and Japan , definitely interest rate will increase and real estate market will collapse (except in capital cities like NYC, Paris , London when there are lot of foreign buyers)
Fri Feb 13, 2015 12:44 am
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These conversations always make me chuckle. Why is it that some of us are so afraid of doomsday that their anxiety level increases to a point where they make huge financial decisions that could affect their future. Wasn't it just 3 years ago that everyone was worried about the Miyan prediction that 2012 the world would come to an end. Seems like we made out ok on that one.
The great recession of 2008 is an example of a housing and market bubble that burst. It's funny there, because I saw it as a great buying opportunity and as for my house, we bought one that we could afford so there wasn't any problems.
How about the gold craze? Weren't we all suppose to be buying gold, because of the market crash. How's gold doing these days? Commodities are bought when there is fear.
My advice to all, is just stay the course, be the tortouise and make decisions wisely and slowly. Buy S&P 500 funds and real estate if your interested and I'm sure you'll come out just fine.
Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing. (Warren Buffet)
Fri Feb 13, 2015 2:29 pm
AlexM1359 New Poster
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Location: Toronto, Ontario
I would say just invest. If you wait around to think for too long you will suffer from analysis paralysis. You will overthink and over analyze things. Waiting for something to happen to the market is like telling yourself you'll wait for the next iPhone or iPad model to come out. You know there's a new one coming out next year, but you lose out on the enjoyment of having one now.
Tue Jun 16, 2015 5:57 pm
Rayz New Member
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You should sell before an economic turn down . People are buying right now because interest rates are low. This means you'll be able to sell your house and hopefully generate a profit. If you wait until the economy crashes you won't be able to sell your house.
You might be able to find a lot of foreclosures after an economic turn down but the interest rates may be higher and it may not be affordable or the best investment.
Put the smallest down payment you can on your new house and get a 30-year fixed loan. Plan to stay in the house at least 10 years. Take the profit from the sale of your house and invest it in something that will generate a higher interest rate then your house loan. If you're really nervous invest your cash after the economy recovers.