| Prices of real estate are overblown |
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Day Trader
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| Prices of real estate are overblown |
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That's why renters continue to rent while mortgaged home buyers expect to sell their homes or go bankrupt.
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Thu Sep 01, 2005 3:33 am |
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xboxundone
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| Re: Prices of real estate are overblown |
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quote:
Originally posted by Day Trader
That's why renters continue to rent while mortgaged home buyers expect to sell their homes or go bankrupt.
I don't know where you are getting this from yes realestate has gone up but i wouldnt say ti is overblown except maybe in northeast and in Cali....
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Thu Sep 01, 2005 2:48 pm |
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vectorz
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| Re: Prices of real estate are overblown |
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quote:
Originally posted by xboxundone
I don't know where you are getting this from yes realestate has gone up but i wouldnt say ti is overblown except maybe in northeast and in Cali....
You don't follow the news much, do you?
Greenspan himself said it. That should tell you something, considering how bullish he usually rides.
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Thu Sep 01, 2005 10:54 pm |
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bong12187
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| Re: Prices of real estate are overblown |
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quote:
Originally posted by vectorz
quote:
Originally posted by xboxundone
I don't know where you are getting this from yes realestate has gone up but i wouldnt say ti is overblown except maybe in northeast and in Cali....
You don't follow the news much, do you?
Greenspan himself said it. That should tell you something, considering how bullish he usually rides.
I am wondering what kind of real estate do you own? Apartments, rental houses, commercial property? I have all of them.
Now, what do you think he meant when he said that? Do you think he is talking to those who are buying and holding and keeping their cash flow or is he talking to people who are flipping properties (speculators) and regular Joes who buy houses to keep up with the Joneses?
We do have alot of people now that are speculators. I believe that he is giving them a warning.
I on the other hand is getting ready for the bubble to bust. Why, because this is where you can pick up properties dirt cheap and by the dozen...
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Fri Sep 02, 2005 5:03 am |
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vectorz
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| Re: Prices of real estate are overblown |
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quote:
Originally posted by bong12187
I am wondering what kind of real estate do you own? Apartments, rental houses, commercial property? I have all of them.
I own all of these and then some.
In any case, you're right. Greenspan must be wrong. Ignore further comments from me or him. You know much more.
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Fri Sep 02, 2005 5:20 am |
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bong12187
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| Re: Prices of real estate are overblown |
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quote:
Originally posted by vectorz
quote:
Originally posted by bong12187
I am wondering what kind of real estate do you own? Apartments, rental houses, commercial property? I have all of them.
I own all of these and then some.
In any case, you're right. Greenspan must be wrong. Ignore further comments from me or him. You know much more.
Greenspan is not wrong. He is right. What I am trying to convey is that it really doesn't matter whether there is a bubble or a bust for investors. Either way, the investors who knows what they are doing will always get ahead even if the market tanks. Knowledgeable investors are now piling up cash to get ready for the next bust. They are still buying properties but trust me they are also keeping some for that upcoming rainy day. Since you mentioned that you have all of those real estate I mentioned, I assume that you will be doing the same thing and currently posturing yourself so that you can buy more properties when we actually do have a bust. I apologize if I had offended you. That was not my intent...
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Fri Sep 02, 2005 5:28 am |
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bong12187
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| Re: Prices of real estate are overblown |
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Since we are talking about overblown prices of real estate i'd like to talk about one property that I am about to look into in about 2 hours. This is a fixer upper located in properties nearby that would sell for about 120k. Property is 1000 sf 3 br 2 bth. It is a foreclosed property and is currently in the market for 87k. If I like what I see, i'd probably offer 70k cash out and to close within 5 days. I've already set aside 25k for repairs (just in case). Once I fix it up, I'd have it appraised and then take it to the bank to borrow 80% of the appraised value. If I could have it appraised for 110k, I could make a loan for 88K. I get my 70k back and pay myself back 18k for the repairs. This would give me a cash investment on the property of 7k. I have similar rental house in the area that I am renting out for 1100. If I could rent that out for also 1100, and my monthly payment is 528.00 (6% amortized for 30 years, 88k) and insurance will cost me another 100 a month, this would leave me 472 per month X 12 months = 5664. This one piece of property has just given me a cash on cash return for my investment of 81% for the first year. Not including the phantom income of depreciation, interest payment, insurance cost etc. and the equity of 22k..
Now, I would do this whether there is a bust or a bubble. Which is why I am not too concern about what Greenspan has to say. 
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Fri Sep 02, 2005 5:47 am |
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forexdaytrading
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| Day Trader is a Plagiarist |
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Day Trader, I just love the content of your "favourite" website: http://www.dantol.com/day_trading_op-eds/currency_devaluation-02.html.
Most of it is an exact copy of my free Day Trading Tutor site: mydaytradingtutor.com
I thought that people had given up trying to copy this website, especially after I got a couple of plagiarist sites banned in Google and other major search engines via the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA) of 1998. I guess people never stop trying.
Dan Tol (or should I call you, "Day Trader"), you have 30 days to take off from your site all of the information you copied from mydaytradingtutor.com. If you don't do it, I will have you banned from all of the major search engines via DMCA and I will sue you just for kicks. I already got your info from the WHOIS database using your domain name:
Registrant:
Dantol Consulting, Inc.
701-1655 Haro Street
Vancouver, BC V6G 1G9
CA
Domain name: DANTOL.COM
Administrative Contact:
Tol, Dan dantol@gmail.com
701-1655 Haro Street
Vancouver, BC V6G 1G9
CA
1-800-331-0190 Fax: 1-877-331-0190
Hopefully you will save yourself all of this frustration and legal hassle by taking the copied content off ASAP.
I will wait and see. This should be fun.
Even though you are right that real estate prices are overblown, your lack of professionalism will make it impossible for anyone to take you seriously.
For those of you that still think that real estate is a good investment, please read the book by Robert Shiller, Irrational Exuberance. He is the same guy that published the first edition of his book calling for a crash in equities one month before the stock market plumetted in 2000. He has done the same thing with the second edition of his book; but now with real estate.
Enjoy.
Dan Alvarez
Last edited by forexdaytrading on Thu Nov 01, 2012 3:40 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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Sat Sep 03, 2005 5:30 am |
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Day Trader
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Dan Alvarez, you accused me of copying your content. In fact, I asked for a written permission to publish your content on my website and you allowed me to do so 4 or 5 months ago.
Please contact me A.S.A.P. and I will send you copies of our correspondence in which you allowed me to use your content.
Thank you
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Wed Sep 21, 2005 3:52 pm |
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Day Trader
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Hi Dan Alvarez, again,
here is a copy of your e-mail (May 13 2005) in which you allowed me to use your content:
From: Day Trading Tutor <daytradingtutor@yahoo.com> Mailed-By: yahoo.com
To: Dan Tol <dantol@gmail.com>
Date: May 13, 2005 8:38 AM
Subject: Re: Day Trading Tutor Email
Sorry for the delay. I have been in New York trying to raise assets for a forex money manager that we work with who is the best in the industry.
You can use the information on my site. Simply add "Provided by Day Trading Tutor" on the top of every page that you use my information in.
Link the words "Day Trading Tutor to the following url http://www.geocities.com/daytradingtutor/
Make sure that the link to the URL is a straight link, not an active link or anything of the sort.
Once you add the info, send me the urls where you added it.
Take care,
Dan Alvarez
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Wed Sep 21, 2005 4:05 pm |
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vectorz
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LOL OWCH
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Wed Sep 21, 2005 5:00 pm |
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forexdaytrading
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Location: Miami, Florida, USA
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Aren't I an idiot?
You are right Day Trader. I did give you permission. It was a mistake on my part. I am truly sorry for it. I noticed that you gave me credit on every page of your site where you used my content. I also noticed that you have added other useful content as well.
It's just that I am so tired of people copying my site that I am a bit too jumpy about the possibility.
Again, my sincere apologies for the error.
Please feel free to continue using my content.
Best regards,
Dan Alvarez
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Wed Sep 21, 2005 5:46 pm |
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diego
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OK, so now that the legal stuff has blown over... for the novices who are watching this thread (like me), can anyone offer a couple of references (books, articles, whatever) that are reasonable summaries of the pro/cons of this question (ie: is real estate overvalued in some markets, will the bubble burst, etc.).
I am not an investor, and have very limited knowledge of this field (I'm a Doc, typical huh?). I own a home in a slow market, I've got an upcoming job transfer to Southern CA, and I'm very interested in learning all I can before I even think about getting over-extended on a house. Also, I'd like to know what to do with my current house- sell it, use it as an income property, etc...
I've noticed that the market there (SoCal) seems pretty flat now, and was wondering what the current increase in interest rates will do. I realize it's a "bubble market" (according to many), but there also seems to be a HUGE surplus of people willing to buy at outrageous rates. The wait lists for development releases are literally hundreds of people deep.
Can anyone offer an informed opinion about whether this buyer surplus will somewhat buffer that market from an extreme decline (particularly if rates keep increasing)?
Much appreciated.
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Wed Sep 21, 2005 6:43 pm |
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forexdaytrading
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Location: Miami, Florida, USA
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Diego, "a HUGE surplus of people willing to buy at outrageous rates" is a perfet definition for a "bubble market!"
In a bubble market the great majority of people agree. Most agree now about real estate. They think it's great. They think that it never goes down. They think that if it does stop going up, it will do so gradually; not in a crash-like fashion.
When people begin to wonder whether they should get in or risk missing the boat, that's the time to get out. Chasing prices has never been a very good investment strategy. It is pure speculation.
Good luck to you no matter what you decide to do.
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Wed Sep 21, 2005 7:59 pm |
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diego
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OK, so that makes sense to me. I've had a lot of trepidation about entering the market there, but I have a lot of friends who say things like "how can you afford NOT to buy" etc. etc. The idea that I'm somehow "wasting" money on rent is prevalent. In my short tenure as a homeowner, I'm not sure that ownership has been the ultimate solution for me. In fact, I look back to my days of renting with a certain nostalgia for being free from deferred maintenance, taxes, and property re-evaluation.
I suppose it would be less of an issue if I had more expendable income, and a mortgage didn't represent a huge financial stretch. Maybe that day will come, but it's not now. I think I'll sit this dance out...
Thanks for the input.
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Wed Sep 21, 2005 8:23 pm |
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