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greg
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| TSP: Let's Talk about the I-Fund |
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Price 57.44 Support 57.07 Pivot Point 57.38 Resistance 57.69
Last edited by greg on Thu Sep 08, 2005 1:45 am; edited 1 time in total |
Thu Sep 08, 2005 1:12 am |
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greg
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Dollar pauses as US rate clues awaited
Wednesday September 7, 7:54 am ET
By Natsuko Waki
LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar stabilised on Wednesday as investors sought clues on the U.S. interest rate outlook after the devastation wrought by Hurricane Katrina raised concerns about economic growth.
Some market participants say the dollar could retreat in the lead-up to the Federal Reserve's meeting on September 20 given concerns the central bank might pause in its year-long campaign of raising rates.
Such expectations rose particularly after the OECD advised the Fed on Tuesday to ease the pace of interest rate hikes in the wake of Katrina.
The market will now take a close look at the Fed's Beige Book, which outlines national business conditions, and a speech by Chicago Fed President Michael Moskow later in the day.
"Much of the dollar's move is coming from uncertainty as to what is going to happen with the Fed. There is speculation the Fed can pause, or they will raise rates but release a fairly dovish statement, putting rate hikes after September in doubt," Johan Javeus, currency strategist at SEB in Stockholm.
"The market hasn't got a clue so there is a lot of anticipation for the speech by Moskow as to how the Fed views the effect from the hurricane and oil prices."
The dollar had fallen to $1.2536 (EUR=), within striking distance of last week's 3-month low of $1.2589, before erasing losses to $1.2464 by 1140 GMT, steady on the day.
It was up 0.25 percent versus the oil-sensitive yen at 109.88 (JPY=) yen.
The euro rose 0.3 percent to 137.01 yen (EURJPY=).
PRELIMINARY IMPACT
The Fed has hiked rates at 10 straight meetings since June 2004, raising its funds rate to 3.5 percent from 1 percent and helping to push the dollar broadly higher in the first half of the year.
U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said on Tuesday that costlier fuel prices and damage to businesses following Hurricane Katrina could slow U.S. economic growth by around half a percentage point over the rest of this year.
However, he said that the economic stimulus from rebuilding efforts in the wake of Katrina would likely boost gross domestic product in 2006.
"There is a good chance that the Fed won't raise rates on September 20 but in doing so they are likely to reaffirm that they will raise rates thereafter," said Ian Gunner, head of foreign exchange research at Mellon Bank.
The yen failed to make headway before Sunday's general election and on concerns that Japan's export-orientated economy could suffer if U.S. consumer demand weakens.
Elsewhere, the Reserve Bank of Australia kept rates at 5.5 percent on Wednesday as expected.
Later in the session, the Bank of Canada will announce its rate decision. The market has been expecting an increase of 25 basis points to 2.75 percent, but some uncertainty has set in after Hurricane Katrina.
The Bank of Japan and the Bank of England are both expected to keep rates unchanged when they make announcements on Thursday.
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Thu Sep 08, 2005 1:32 am |
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greg
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Dollar gains as oil price falls
Thu Sep 8,11:00 AM ET
NEW YORK (Reuters) The dollar rose against the euro on Thursday as oil prices fell in the wake of U.S. crude oil inventory data.
The euro initially dipped to about $1.2390 according to Reuters data from around $1.2405 shortly before the data.
The data were broadly in line with market expectations and did not show as sharp a decline in fuel stocks as some strategists had feared, one currency analyst said. Expectations of measured interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, broadly viewed as dollar supportive, remain intact, the analyst added.
U.S. crude oil futures fell below $64 per barrel after the data, alleviating some concerns about the impact of high energy prices on U.S. consumers.
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Thu Sep 08, 2005 11:55 pm |
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greg
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| Dollar dips on profit-taking, outlook unclear |
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Dollar dips on profit-taking, outlook unclear
Sept 14 (Reuters) - The dollar crept lower on Wednesday, as dealers took profits on its recent climb to two-week highs, but the currency was delicately balanced by technical factors that could swing the greenback in either direction.
Analysts and traders were befuddled by a host of issues that clouded the dollar's near-term course, such as see-sawing oil prices and an absence of firm conviction in the currency markets about where the U.S. economy and interest rates are headed in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.
"We're at a fairly critical juncture as to where the market is going to go," said Mark Shawzin, managing director and senior trading advisor of Protrade Capital Group in Los Angeles. "I think we're getting closer to the moment of truth of the next direction in the market."
By late afternoon, the euro <EUR=> was up 0.1 percent on the day at $1.2282, while sterling <GBP=> was also up 0.1 percent, at $1.8241.
The dollar was down 0.3 percent at 1.2579 Swiss francs <CHF=> and had pared some losses against the yen <JPY=> to trade at 110.33 yen, down 0.3 percent.
The U.S. dollar index <.DXY> ticked down 0.12 percent to 87.65.
Shawzin noted the difficulty that the dollar index had in July sustaining a move above 90 and more recent resistance at the 88.45 level could mean the resumption of a long-term downtrend for the dollar.
However, the catalyst is unknown, said Shawzin.
MARKETS MIXED
Mixed U.S. retail sales and softer-than-expected growth in industrial production data for August did little to move currency prices much, although mild downward pressure on bonds pushed up yields and limited the dollar's downside.
Earlier in the U.S. session, headline retail sales fell 2.1 percent, according to the Commerce Department, almost twice as much as economists had expected. Yet the pace of growth in sales excluding autos was twice as fast as they had predicted, at 1.0 percent.
Industrial production rose 0.1 percent in the month, compared with analysts' forecasts of a 0.3 percent rise. The Federal Reserve blamed Hurricane Katrina for the slower pace of growth, even though no more than a few days production could have been affected.
"The market's really schizophrenic right now, nobody really knows what to do with this," said Grant Wilson, chief dealer at Mellon Bank in Pittsburgh.
John Kosar, president of Asbury Research, argued that the dollar index is on the verge of resuming a 2005 rally based on technical levels.
A rise in the index above chart resistance at 87.80 and then 88.10 "would help confirm our bullish bias by indicating the July downtrend is over, and suggesting the larger 2005 uptrend has resumed," said Kosar.
Expectations for higher U.S. interest rates have helped the dollar this year. But with so much economic data to digest this week, bond and currency markets have yet to take a firm bet on how aggressive or otherwise the Fed will be in raising rates between its meeting next week and the end of the year.
On the more immediate horizon, traders will be looking to U.S. inflation numbers, the Philadelphia Fed business index, second quarter current account and July capital flows data over the next 48 hours for direction.
Some traders will also watch for a monetary policy decision by the central bank of Brazil due later on Wednesday. Analysts are widely expecting a cut in interest rates but are split as to by how much.
© Reuters 2005.
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Wed Sep 14, 2005 11:43 pm |
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greg
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Currency Quest - Is the Dollar Quite Ready to Rumble?
by Mike Ellis
9/14/2005, Forexnews.com
Analysis
September 14th - The Dollar Index has veered back upwards in the past week or so, chipping away the front edge of a prior small double top at 87.5. Nevertheless, there is another step of proving still required in the form of piercing the interim downtrend that evolved out of the preceding head and shoulders pattern. Ostensibly this asks the greenback to bust into the 88's with conviction if it is to make the latest rebound stick and thereafter grow into a new and lasting upside push. Meanwhile, it cannot yet be trusted to have completed its medium term corrective journey and so, should the 88 area block the way, one should be prepared for yet another dive to actually bring the spotlight to bear on the 85.4 base rim, the support/resistance ratio only becoming much more pro-Dollar at that point. In the near term, this may even present an opportunity for some brief Dollar short punts but be very careful and keep stop cover not far into the 88's in equivalent terms.
Strategy Erring to shorting the USD in the 87.5-88 region with stops equivalent to about 88.25. Underneath, would be looking to cash profits from 86 down to 85.5 and, after a brief pause for review, probably proceed into a longer term acquisition of Dollar longs from 85.5 downwards into the high 84's.
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Thu Sep 15, 2005 12:10 am |
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greg
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$ 18.62 (down 9 cents)
Tally of them fudging the daily I-fund prices in 2006
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Jan 03 Overpriced by 1.480%
Jan 04 Underpriced by 0.707%
Jan 05 Underpriced by 0.478%
Jan 06 matched MSCI (0.983% to 1.013%)
Jan 09 matched MSCI (-0.108% to -0.135%)
Jan 10 matched MSCI (-0.920% to -0.917%)
Jan 11 matched MSCI (0.820% to 0.844%)
Jan 12 matched MSCI
Jan 13 matched MSCI
Jan 17 matched MSCI
Jan 18 matched MSCI
Jan 19 matched MSCI
Jan 20 Underpriced by 0.498%
Jan 23 Overpriced by 0.513%
Jan 24 matched MSCI (0.165% to 0.145%)
Jan 25 matched MSCI (0.550% to 0.565%)
Jan 26 matched MSCI (0.930% to 0.888%)
Jan 27 matched MSCI (0.813% to 0.815%)
Jan 30 matched MSCI (-0.269% to -0.226%)
Jan 31 matched MSCI (0.647% to 0.607%)
Feb 01 matched MSCI (0.054% to 0.072%)
Feb 02 matched MSCI (-0.589% to -0.618%)
Feb 03 matched MSCI (-0.808% to -0.787%)
Feb 06 matched MSCI (0.054% to 0.078%)
Feb 07 Underpriced by 0.492% (-0.760% to -0.268%)
Feb 08 Overpriced by 1.047% (0.055% to -0.992%)
Feb 09 Underpriced by 0.497% (0.546% to 1.043)
Feb 10 matched MSCI (-0.652% to -0.623%)
Feb 13 matched MSCI (-0.3285 to -0.341%)
Feb 14 Overpriced by 0.698% (0.823% to 0.125%)
Feb 15 Underpriced by 0.769% (-0.653% to 0.116%)
Feb 16 Overpriced by 0.524% (0.877% to 0.353%)
Feb 17 Underpriced by 0.538 (-0.652% to -0.114%)
Feb 21 matched MSCI (on 20th MSCI = 0.0%, on 21st 0.437% to 0.430%)
Feb 22 matched MSCI (0.272% to 0.206% - this was actually a penny high but I'll let it slide)
Feb 23 matched MSCI (0.977% to 0.960%)
Feb 24 matched MSCI (0.000% to 0.041% - they could have paid a penny but maybe needed to make up for the 22nd extra penny)
Feb 27 matched MSCI (0.591% to 0.559%)
Feb 28 matched MSCI (-0.481% to -0.458%)
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Wed Mar 01, 2006 12:15 am |
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greg
Senior Member
Cash: $ 127.49
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Feb 21 matched MSCI (on 20th MSCI = 0.0%, on 21st 0.437% to 0.430%)
Feb 22 matched MSCI (0.272% to 0.206% - this was actually a penny high)
Feb 23 matched MSCI (0.977% to 0.960%)
Feb 24 matched MSCI (0.000% to 0.041% - this was almost a penny low)
Feb 27 matched MSCI (0.591% to 0.559%)
Feb 28 matched MSCI (-0.481% to -0.458%)
Mar 01 matched MSCI (0.215% to 0.157% - this was actually a penny high)
Mar 02 matched MSCI (-0.322% to -0.318%)
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Fri Mar 03, 2006 2:31 am |
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greg
Senior Member
Cash: $ 127.49
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Fri Mar 03, 2006 2:47 am |
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greg
Senior Member
Cash: $ 127.49
Posts: 609
Joined: 23 Mar 2005
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msci down 0.264% today
this means i-fund should be down 5 cents to $18.55
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Fri Mar 03, 2006 8:17 pm |
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greg
Senior Member
Cash: $ 127.49
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Joined: 23 Mar 2005
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Feb 21 matched MSCI (on 20th MSCI = 0.0%, on 21st 0.437% to 0.430%)
Feb 22 matched MSCI (0.272% to 0.206% - this was actually a penny high)
Feb 23 matched MSCI (0.977% to 0.960%)
Feb 24 matched MSCI (0.000% to 0.041% - this was almost a penny low)
Feb 27 matched MSCI (0.591% to 0.559%)
Feb 28 matched MSCI (-0.481% to -0.458%)
Mar 01 matched MSCI (0.215% to 0.157% - this was actually a penny high)
Mar 02 matched MSCI (-0.322% to -0.318%)
Mar 03 matched MSCI (-0.215% to -0.264%)
Mar 06 matched MSCI (0.323% to 0.358%)
Mar 07 matched MSCI (-1.289% to -1.330%)
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Wed Mar 08, 2006 12:06 am |
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greg
Senior Member
Cash: $ 127.49
Posts: 609
Joined: 23 Mar 2005
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Wed Mar 08, 2006 12:13 am |
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rangerbob
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so greg...is there a point you'd like to make buried in all those charts?
greed is good.
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Wed Mar 08, 2006 3:36 pm |
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greg
Senior Member
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quote:
Originally posted by rangerbob
so greg...is there a point you'd like to make buried in all those charts?
well, i like for people to draw their own convlusions.
i think the chart showed eafe had a down turn and where the next support is
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Thu Mar 09, 2006 1:13 am |
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greg
Senior Member
Cash: $ 127.49
Posts: 609
Joined: 23 Mar 2005
Location: One Monkey Don't Stop No Show
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EAFE fell thru the support today.
The new support is 61.12
Feb 21 matched MSCI (on 20th MSCI = 0.0%, on 21st 0.437% to 0.430%)
Feb 22 matched MSCI (0.272% to 0.206% - this was actually a penny high)
Feb 23 matched MSCI (0.977% to 0.960%)
Feb 24 matched MSCI (0.000% to 0.041% - this was almost a penny low)
Feb 27 matched MSCI (0.591% to 0.559%)
Feb 28 matched MSCI (-0.481% to -0.458%)
Mar 01 matched MSCI (0.215% to 0.157% - this was actually a penny high)
Mar 02 matched MSCI (-0.322% to -0.318%)
Mar 03 matched MSCI (-0.215% to -0.264%)
Mar 06 matched MSCI (0.323% to 0.358%)
Mar 07 matched MSCI (-1.289% to -1.330%)
Mar 08 matched MSCI (-0.545% to -0.489%)
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Thu Mar 09, 2006 1:17 am |
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greg
Senior Member
Cash: $ 127.49
Posts: 609
Joined: 23 Mar 2005
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| 14 days without them fudging the I-fund daily price |
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Feb 21 matched MSCI (on 20th MSCI = 0.0%, on 21st 0.437% to 0.430%)
Feb 22 matched MSCI (0.272% to 0.206%)
Feb 23 matched MSCI (0.977% to 0.960%)
Feb 24 matched MSCI (0.000% to 0.041%)
Feb 27 matched MSCI (0.591% to 0.559%)
Feb 28 matched MSCI (-0.481% to -0.458%)
Mar 01 matched MSCI (0.215% to 0.157%)
Mar 02 matched MSCI (-0.322% to -0.318%)
Mar 03 matched MSCI (-0.215% to -0.264%)
Mar 06 matched MSCI (0.323% to 0.358%)
Mar 07 matched MSCI (-1.289% to -1.330%)
Mar 08 matched MSCI (-0.490% to -0.545%)
Mar 09 matched MSCI (1.148 to 1.151%)
Mar 10 matched MSCI (0.000% to 0.009%)
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Sat Mar 11, 2006 1:49 am |
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