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Profiting Bird Flu

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TeenInvestor
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Profiting Bird Flu  Reply with quote  

We have all heard about Bird Flu, and I realize it is still unlikely that there will be a massive epidemic. However opportunity lies everywhere, and if an epidemic does strike U.S or Western Europe, does any have any ideas on how to profit from it? The way I see it, survival of me and my family comes first, but after that if I can help people and make money then why not?

So does anyone have any ideas?


Thanks guys
Post Mon Mar 13, 2006 7:26 pm
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JBendar
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Bird Flu  Reply with quote  

TeenInvestor:

There is a web site called www.barchart.com. This site gives you the five most recent days activity in stocks, as well as the dates of highs and lows. You can do research as well at Yahoo Finance. The company that is interesting to watch is the symbol BCRX. You can just watch the activity. The range has been between 15.00 and 23.00 this year. If you bought at the low and sold at the high, it is a difference of almost 50%. This is not a recommendation to buy that stock, but it is interesting to follow. Hope this helps you. You can always do a search under Bird Flu - Biotech Companies, and see what you get.

JBendar Wink
Post Mon Mar 13, 2006 7:39 pm
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coaster
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Teeninvestor -- I can go along with your viewpoint. I don't have any specific recommendations because I simply don't know of any. As JBendar says, you can search stock databases for biotech companies. You might look for those researching new ways of developing vaccines, for one idea. However, keep in mind that most of the companies are highly speculative -- they don't have a track record of successful products and making money. If they do happen to hit it just right, you stand to make a very good profit. But if they don't, you'll probably lose most, if not all, your investment.

Just do your research, and keep your eyes open.

~Tim~
Post Mon Mar 13, 2006 8:22 pm
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TeenInvestor
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I am doing some more research, and what I am mainly after is what the chances that there will be a pandemic. No sense trying to make a "play" if the chances are very small that there will be a pandemic. I am actually having some trouble finding an estimation by a well reputed scientist. Thanks for the posts so far guys, time for me to do some more research.

Before I go, what do you think about buying put options on the big indexes -- highly leveraged bets against the market?

Forgot to add: If any of you can find a site that has the odds, chances,estimate of a pandemic please let me know, I would appreciate it.
Post Tue Mar 14, 2006 5:58 am
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coaster
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You can probably find estimates of the chances, but they'll all be different because they're all just guesses. No one knows what the odds are because in order to figure the odds, you have to have a database of enough similar occurences for the probabilities to be statistically significant. There has only been one similar occurence since records have been kept: the Spanish flu epidemic in the early 20th century.

Options aren't for the novice investor because you have to be right not only on the direction, but on the time frame. If you want to "bet against the market" that's gambling, not investing.

~Tim~
Post Tue Mar 14, 2006 1:33 pm
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coaster
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ABC news has been doing reports about bird flu and tonight they profiled the scientist who discovered it. He said he thought there was an "even chance" that bird flu would cross over to humans, but he didn't offer any timeline.

~Tim~
Post Wed Mar 15, 2006 12:03 am
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TeenInvestor
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Thanks coaster, I appreciate it.

So what do you guys think are the best plays here?

A: Stocks of companies that would profit
B: Buying products beforehand, and then selling them when there is a big demand for them, like those masks that sold so well during the whole SARS thing(kinda like surgeon masks)
C: Any other options

I would like all of your opinions, so throw them at me.

Also, if Bird Flu does strike, what stocks are likely to go down deeply?
Post Wed Mar 15, 2006 6:13 am
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coaster
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Option A, by all means. And if it does mutate into a human virus, I'd say everything except A will be hit hard.

Now that the migration season is starting, I'd say that bird flu will show up in the western hemisphere in birds sometime this year.

~Tim~
Post Wed Mar 15, 2006 12:54 pm
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Ibez
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Don't forget all the money that will be spent developing and producing medicine for bird flu in advance..

It's looking fairly 50/50 there.. IF there's no bird flu epidemic you're losing money, if there is, You're gaining.

I would give that a no, My gut feeling is no bird flu epidemic anyway.
Post Thu Mar 16, 2006 8:36 pm
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blade28
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I dont know if you want to profit from an illness...
Post Sat Mar 18, 2006 12:05 am
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coaster
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I agree that's a noble sentiment....we would never want to cause or profit from causing another person's misery -- pain, suffering or death. However, investing in medical technology, drug companies, etc isn't the cause of illness and other health miseries, but rather the purpose of these companies is to attempt to alleviate or prevent them. So profiting by investing in bird flu cure or prevention is actually participating in alleviating pain, suffering and death. IMO, of course. Wink

~Tim~
Post Sat Mar 18, 2006 12:32 am
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TeenInvestor
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OF course I agree with you Coaster..

So it seems stocks are the best options, and I will be looking for companies that would profit greatly from a pandemic. Drug companies obviously, and unfortunately morgues, businesses that make masks/gloves as well, home entertainment etc..

Im looking for the ones most likely to profit, while keeping it safe so if nothing happens I wont lose my total investment.

On a side note, some stocks are going to PLUMMET if a pandemic hits, like Starbucks,YUM, malls, etc..
Post Sat Mar 18, 2006 6:16 am
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coaster
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I saw on CNBC today somebody from this outfit that has a "bird flu index" made up of companies they see profiting from bird flu. Perhaps that will give some ideas:

http://www.trendmacro.com/default2.asp

~Tim~
Post Thu Mar 30, 2006 9:19 pm
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Offshore-Wealth.com
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Offshore-Wealth.com  Reply with quote  

quote:
Originally posted by blade28
I dont know if you want to profit from an illness...


Interesting, you mean like all the drug companies do?

Good luck to all, MIke

FREE PAY IT FORWARD OPPORTUNITIES
http://ENVIROPURELIGHT.com
http://FREE100KSECRET.com
Post Fri Apr 07, 2006 10:41 pm
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mukeshkkashyap
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Thanx for your update ...
Post Wed Jul 21, 2010 7:10 am
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