Jon
Preferred Member
Cash: $ 50.02
Posts: 193
Joined: 13 Apr 2005
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| More housing notes |
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Housing continues as primary economic barometer for most analysts. Most likely it is because housing remained strong during the recession and it is the one category that could be counted upon all during the expansion. Even Bernanke has voiced concern over a housing market decline presaging an overall economic decline; of course, he took it right back, noting that the commercial real estate market was more than hot enough to cause problems with inflation.
It is very clear to most that the housing market has shifted from a strong sellers market to more of a buyers market. Monday we discussed Phoenix’ housing market, one of the hottest, making the turn. Other markets are seeing the same thing. In Texas the market never got that hot statewide, and recently many houses are selling, but the average price is falling.
Homebuilders are coming to terms with reality as well. Tuesday TOL and KBH both indicated their Q1 sales were going to be lower, TOL making its second downward revision in the quarter. KBH sees a 29% decline. Repeated revisions show the market slipping from under them. It is not a sudden tank; the housing market peaked in the first half of 2005. These are just the latest indicia of that continued decline.
It is a reality check for most investors what with the Fed still talking tough on interest rates. Interest sensitive stocks, rattled at the start of March on high rate fears, were rattled again Tuesday. Utilities were rocked along with the homebuilders. Even the brokerages, not really interest rate sensitive, were sold on higher volume. Last week the presumption was maybe just one more hike. Bernanke squelched that one Monday night. The question is once again swinging to whether it will be 2 or 3 as opposed to 1 or 2. Last week that 1 or 2 mentality helped the market rally. With bond yields rising again, those fears are creeping back in just as the market crested on the last rebound.
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Thu Mar 23, 2006 4:49 am |
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foxi$
Contributing Member
Cash: $ 5.15
Posts: 25
Joined: 22 Aug 2006
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| THE MRKET GOING TO DO WHAT IT GOT TO DO |
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IT GOES UP OR IT COMES DOWN WHO GOING TO STOP THE MARKET THINK ABOUT IT PEOPLE NEED HOME GROWTH RATE POULATION NATURAL DIASTER YOU THINK I WOULD BE HERE IF I KNEW I JUST ENJOY THE BOOM IT GOT TO TAKE OR GIVE FUNNY I GUESS WE BETTER RIDE IT OUT!
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Wed Aug 23, 2006 4:02 am |
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